Task Estimation Checklist

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 1. Use the Base and Contingency Technique for Estimating Tasks by Time.

• Consider two parameters for time estimates:
  • Base – it’s a minimum expected amount of time required for completing a task when everything goes well.
  • Contingency – it’s an amount of trust put on Base when risks are calculated and considered. It’s expressed as a percentage of Base. A figure of 10% -20% is quite normal to most tasks.
  • Use the risk register of your project to define risks and then take them into account when estimating Contingency per task.
  • Decompose your project into a list of estimable, low-level tasks.
  • Define Base and Contingency for each task. Historical data, experience gained from previous projects and expert advice will be ways for estimating these parameters.
  • Make a time estimate per task based on the parameters.
  • Aggregate all the estimates into the total time estimate.
  • Use this estimate to figure out Contingency for your entire project.
  • Use time estimates to plan durations and timeframe for your tasks.

2. Use Historical Data and Experience for Estimating Tasks by Performance.

• Review tasks of your previous project.
• Compare planned performance to actual performance of the project.
• Define any deviations between the values.
• Investigate what steps could be taken to minimize such deviations and produce the previous project according to planned performance.
• Make an appropriate action plan with reference to such steps.
• Analyze your current project and find out if it has similar or standardized tasks with the past project.
• Make a forecast of how the current project will be developed if using planned performance metrics of the previous project.
• Use your action plan for minimizing deviations and avoiding performance reduction during your current project.

 3. Use the Delphi Technique for Estimating Tasks by Quality.

• Assign a group of independent experts (no more than 20 persons) who will participate in estimations.
• Prepare lists of questions regarding your future project and its tasks. Your questions should include (but not be limited to) the following areas:
  • Purpose of your project
  • HR assigned to tasks
  • Budget allocated to the overall project
  • Cost per task
  • Duration per task
  • Performance criteria per task
  • Quality standards for the project
  • Send your questions to external experts who should review this information and make suggestions on what questions can be removed or improved.
  • Receive suggestions from the experts and make appropriate updates to the questions.
  • Produce your own solutions for addressing the updated questions and send this information to the experts who should independently investigate your solutions and propose their own solutions (if any).
  • Receive the experts’ solutions.
  • Share these solutions between all the experts who should approve or disapprove efficiency of every solution.
  • Iterate this procedure until all the experts agree on the most efficient and appropriate solutions applicable to your project.

 4. Build a Breakdown Structure for Estimating Tasks by Cost (the Three-Point Technique).

• Consider three figures for your cost estimates. These figures are:
  • A – the best (optimistic) estimate
  • B – the most likely estimate
  • C – the worst (pessimistic) estimate
  • Use the figures to calculate a weighted average (E) for every estimate and define a standard deviation (SD).
  • Use the following formulas for calculating E and SD:
    • E = A + 4 + B/6
    • SD = (B - A)/6
  • Decompose your project into a list of estimable tasks. For example, you can build a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) with work packages.
  • Calculate E for every cost estimate per task listed in WBS.
  • Calculate SD for every cost estimate per task listed in WBS.
  • Use both values (E and SD) to define Confidence Level (CF) for your estimates. Use this information:
    • CL in E is approximately 50%
    • CL in E + SD is approximately 70%
    • CL in E + 2xSD is approximately 95%
    • CL in E + 3xSD is approximately 99.5%
  • Use only ...

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