Project Forecast Checklist

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1. Identify the Need for Forecasting.
   • Use an environmental analysis to identify factors that influence your company’s environment.
   • Review identified factors to determine the nature of their impact (neutral, negative or positive).
   • Analyze current status of the company’s strategic goals and objectives.
   • Establish correlation between the factors and the status.
   • Review ongoing projects and identify how they’re dependent on the status.
   • Determine whether there’s a need to examine ways for managing identified factors in order to mitigate their negative impact to the company’s projects and strategic goals.
   • Decide on the need for making forecasts of future changes in the project environment.
2. Choose Things for Forecasting.
   • Analyze the project environment to define what things are affected critically by identified factors.
   • Identify how project plans are affected by those factors.
   • Make a list of project parameters that you are going to forecast (they could be performance, cost, resource need, changes in customer expectations, others.).
   • Identify current status of selected parameters.
   • Check if there are any existing forecasts of the parameters.
   • Choose a forecasting method such as:
     • Delphi technique
     • Monitoring method
     • Lessons Learned method
     • Relevance Trees
     • Cross-Impact analysis
     • Scenarios
   • Engage project teams in participating in the forecasting process.
3. Identify Time Horizon.
   • Establish exact start time and finish time for your forecasting activity.
   • Assign a team that will do the forecasting process.
   • Set time horizon for the process (note that higher time horizon entails more accurate forecasting results).
   • Remember not to exceed the overall time available for your projects; otherwise your forecast will be useless.
   • Develop a schedule that explains what time the team has to step through the process and develop a complete project forecast.
4. Setup Forecasting.
   • Set assumptions and constraints for your forecasting model.
   • Identify and measure boundaries for the model.
   • Define scope of the forecasting process.
   • Identify people involved in or affected by the process.
   • Be sure your implementation team has all necessary tools, systems and equipment to make forecasting.
   • Get approval for forecasting from senior management teams.
   • Identify resources required to do the process and then request these resources for approval.
   • Develop a budget sheet that shows the total amount of money required to acquire and utilize necessary resources.
5. Implement the Process.
   • Engage the team in performing the forecasting process under the requirements defined at the previous steps.
   • Analyze your forecasting model to check its fitness to your project.
   • Conduct meetings and workshops with the team to discuss interim results and solve open issues.
   • Be sure that assumptions and constraints are counted by the team.
   • Review process performance to make sure the team follows the schedule.
   • Develop a team performance report on results produced after the process is done.
   • Have a project forecast made after the process is done.
6. Use the Forecast.
   • Conduct a meeting with the seniors to discuss the forecast and identify further actions.
   • Focus on key points the forecast presents.
   • Summarize how the forecast correlates with the actual situation in your project environment.
   • Develop and agree an action plan for ...

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